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F. Conflict Prevention Considerations

The USAID Administrator has directed the Agency to identify sources of vulnerabilities to violent conflict in countries in which we work, and to deploy our resources and programs more deliberately and proactively to help prevent existing tensions and conflicts from turning into widespread violence. Conflict exists in all societies and is often a natural by-product of change and development. Societies with structural weaknesses – economic, political and social – are particularly vulnerable to "accelerators" that, if unchecked, can exacerbate underlying tensions, and quickly elevate them to the point of violent conflict. USAID/Malawi believes that unlike some of the countries in the region, the probability of "crisis" within Malawi is considered low.

USAID/Malawi and the Embassy/Lilongwe have used the Forum for Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) indicators of potential violent conflict or political breakdown as the basis for the current assessment. As shown in Table 2, we find that the economic structural factors – the prevalence of poverty, income disparities, high rates of unemployment and inflation, chronic food insecurity, environmental degradation, corruption and macroeconomic instability – are such that a crisis is possible. However, when we review the accelerator column, we find that most of the conditions which would accelerate conflict in Malawi are not present. On the political front, the biggest concern is a sense of unfulfilled expectations. We also note a growing disillusionment or confidence in the security institutions. The GOM shares this concern and has increased resources with substantive British assistance going to institutions of security, most notably the Police. On the economic front, there are concerns with the issues of debt and currency stability as well as the underlying factors of inflation, civil service reform and macroeconomic management.

An area that may cause instability is the possibility of food shortages in the event of a severe drought. USAID/Malawi will continue to monitor the food situation closely and will manage available food resources carefully to alleviate any crisis that might emerge. Finally, we note that there is an extremely high disparity in incomes within Malawi with a signficant (40%) of the population living in absolute poverty. This structural issue is not believed to fall into the class of being an accelerator, due to the fact that the level of poverty is relatively static and has not increased significantly.

As we examine other possible "triggers" of crisis, one source may come from increased tension between the regime supporters and opposition groups as a result of court decisions with regard to the 1999 Presidential elections. It is the Mission’s assessment, however, that this is unlikely to result in a crisis situation, other factors being absent. A second "trigger" may be the purging of career civil servants for reasons of doubtful loyalty. It is our assessment, however, that this event will more likely erode confidence in the Government than trigger an actual crisis.

The USAID/Malawi Strategic Plan through its Strategic Objectives directly and constructively addresses critical issues of education, health, economic structure, and democracy and governance. These efforts should contribute to meeting many of the citizens’ unfulfilled expectations. We are therefore confident that a crisis in Malawi is unlikely to occur, and that the United States Government is taking all steps within our manageable interest to minimize the possibility of a crisis.

Table from: "A Manual for Early Warning and Early Response" developed by the Forum for Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) London, 1999.

Coding:

A Lesser Concern in Malawi, December 1999