1. Conflict will continue.

2. U.S. interest in Sudan remains high.

3. The promise of oil revenues changes north-south dynamics.

4. Opposition movements continue to build civilian administration.

5. At least one occurrence of large-scale natural disaster, including drought and/or flooding.

6. Other donors and NGOs continue their same level of assistance to Sudan.

Results Framework as elaborated in this ISP.

Large-scale displacement recommences, and access to populations in need decreases, as result of a serious drought or flooding over large areas; an increased bulldozing campaign in Khartoum; increased intensity of GOS-opposition fighting or factional fighting in the South; or a return to regional conflicts.

Stable areas become unstable.

Political changes in Khartoum put hardliners in power.

Opposition movements fail to move forward towards democratization.

The U.S. becomes increasingly isolated in its policy stance and/or withdraws from the OLS umbrella.

The HIV/AIDS pandemic spreads rapidly in Sudan, debilitating the nascent Sudanese capacity for self-reliance.

Food aid and OFDA budget increases, development budget decreases.

Health service delivery and emergency food provision – and the requirements for access -- take priority over capacity-building and transfer to Sudanese ownership. Conflict Reduction IR 1.1 and 1.3, Food Security IR 2.3, and Health IR 3.2 become higher priorities.

Reintegration becomes less of a priority.

Access to information on the conflicts, human rights, and health status becomes a higher priority.

In the worst case, Conflict Reduction IR 1.2, Food Security IR 2.1 and IR 2.2, and Health IR 3.1 are dropped.

A north-south cease-fire is consolidated and holds.

Regional peace initiatives consolidated and hold.

No significant military confrontation between the GOS and opposition.

Opposition movements develop an effective partnership.

Civilians, traders and NGOs allowed to cross front lines of combatants.

US-GOS relations improve.

Investment increases.

OLS reforms make progress and result in more efficient delivery of relief.

Emergency relief declines and is gradually replaced by increased development assistance focused on capacity-building. Sudan Team continues to seek additional funding from development assistance earmarks/targets for health care, i.e. child survival, HIV/AIDS, orphans/handicapped, demining/demobilization, and environment/natural resources/biodiversity.

Conflict Reduction IR 1.2, Food Security IR 2.1 and IR 2.2, and Health IR 3.1 become priorities.

Increased emphasis on monitoring and coordination in Food Security IR 2.3.

Reintegration becomes a high priority as the flow of returning IDPs and refugees increases.

More staff in USAID’s Khartoum office.

A north-south peace (comprehensive settlement) is consolidated and holds.

Political pluralism emerges in the GOS.

Armies and militias to be reintegrated into Sudanese society.

Demobilization and disarmament. Initiate political transition (OTI) assistance.

Initiate formal education program, vocational and business training.

Increase assistance for communications to monitor peace and for infrastructure rehabilitation.